We maintain our $200,000 target amid heightened market volatility. This report assesses the nature of the current correction and the durability of long-term fundamentals.
Key Takeaways
U.S. government shutdown continues for 35 days, creating short-term pressure - TGA liquidity frozen, Polymarket prediction shows 73% chance this extends past mid-November
Record liquidation event hurts market sentiment - October 10 forced liquidations hit $20B and affected 1.6 million traders, market clears excessive leverage triggering temporary correction
Fundamentals stay intact supporting long-term upside - Global liquidity expands with M2 surpassing $96 trillion, institutions maintain strategic buying, $200,000 TP unchanged
Bitcoin Enters Correction Phase
Bitcoin has fallen approximately 20% over the past month after reaching its all-time high of $126,200 on October 6, now consolidating around $100,000. The total crypto market cap similarly dropped from $4.35 trillion in early October to $3.3 trillion today, down 22%, spreading correction pressure across both Bitcoin and Altcoins.
This decline happens without any crypto-specific bad news. The U.S. government shutdown, Fed Chair’s stance change, and leverage unwinding drive the current weakness.
U.S. Federal Government Shutdown Risk
The U.S. federal government shutdown, now 35 days since October 1, stands as the main factor behind the current correction. This crisis stops government spending and creates policy gaps at major financial regulators including the SEC, limiting macro liquidity flows into crypto markets. The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) payment freeze particularly blocks liquidity that should enter capital markets. In general, when TGA stops payments, the government stops spending while still collecting taxes and issuing bonds, which drains liquidity from the system.
While U.S. government shutdowns have always ended modestly in the past, Republicans and Democrats remain stuck in budget negotiations with Polymarket showing 73% odds this continues past mid-November, raising concerns that near-term corrections will persist.
Powell’s Hawkish Comments
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated after the October 29 FOMC meeting that December rate cuts are “ ~not a foregone conclusion, far from it.” This statement dropped the December rate cut probability from 95% to 68%, cooling expectations for easy monetary policy and increasing tension around crypto market liquidity.
October 10 Liquidation Aftermath
President Trump’s China tariff threats triggered the October 10 cascade that became crypto’s largest-ever leverage unwind at approximately $20 billion. Over 1.6 million traders got liquidated, and markets have shown extreme volatility since. Today’s news that $45 million in Bitcoin moved from wallets allegedly linked to Barron Trump further weakened investor sentiment. However, this correction reduced high-leverage positions, which partially cools market speculation.
AI-sector correction spills over
The public equity market weakened November 4 as investors raised valuation concerns about AI-related companies. Palantir dropped 7.94% after-hours despite strong earnings when Michael Burry from Scion Asset Management disclosed his short position. This AI sector correction hits crypto markets too. As public equity markets turn away from high-growth stocks, crypto markets face even bigger selling pressure due to their higher volatility.
Fundamentals Unchange
We maintain our Bitcoin target price at $200,000. Current market uncertainty looks high, but we need to focus on the certain factors that won’t change. Global liquidity expansion continues clearly with M2 money supply breaking $96 trillion, and institutional support for digital assets remains firm. Major TradFi firms continue their growth, ETF markets expand structurally, stablecoins move toward institutional adoption—these medium to long-term growth drivers stay unchanged.
U.S. government shutdowns always end with bipartisan agreement throughout history, and this one will too—it’s just a matter of time. The Fed’s rate-cutting direction itself doesn’t change, only the speed remains in question. Most importantly, Bitcoin’s fundamentals show zero change. The network runs stably and institutions continue their strategic accumulation.
When we consider these unchanging factors, the current correction comes from excessive leverage clearing and temporary macro uncertainty—not enough to break the long-term uptrend.
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The Bitcoin valuation methodology presented in this document (hereinafter referred to as the “Methodology”) is intended solely for educational and academic research purposes. It does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell, or a recommendation to engage in any form of trading activity. The fair prices derived from this Methodology are theoretical outputs based on objective data and mathematical models. They should not be interpreted as guidance or endorsement for any specific investment action, including buying, selling, or holding Bitcoin.
This Methodology is designed as a research framework to offer one perspective on Bitcoin valuation. It is not intended to be used as the basis for actual investment decisions. The Methodology has been carefully reviewed to ensure it does not constitute any form of market manipulation, fraudulent trading, or other unfair trading practices as defined under Article 10 of the “Act on the Protection of Virtual Asset Users” (the “Virtual Asset User Protection Act”). All analysis uses only publicly available information, including on-chain blockchain data and officially released economic indicators. No material non-public or insider information has been used. All valuation outputs, including target prices, are based on reasonable assumptions and presented without misrepresentation or omission of material facts.
The authors and distributors of this Methodology fully comply with the conflict of interest disclosure requirements set forth in Article 10, Paragraph 4, Item 2 of the Virtual Asset User Protection Act. If the authors hold or intend to trade the relevant virtual asset (Bitcoin) at the time of writing or distribution, such interests will be transparently disclosed.
The indicators used in this Methodology—such as Base Price, Fundamental Indicator, and Macro Indicator—are derived from approaches the authors consider reasonable. However, they do not represent absolute truths or definitive answers. The Bitcoin market is highly volatile, operates 24/7, spans global jurisdictions, and is subject to significant regulatory uncertainty. As a result, there may be substantial and prolonged deviations between the valuation results of this Methodology and actual market prices.
This Methodology is based on historical data and information available at the time of writing. It does not guarantee or predict future performance. Past patterns or correlations may not persist, and unexpected market shocks, regulatory shifts, technical failures, or macroeconomic events could significantly undermine the predictive validity of this framework. Given the relatively short history and evolving nature of the crypto market, there are inherent limitations to the reliability of past data and its applicability to future projections.
All investment decisions should be made independently and under the investor’s sole responsibility. This Methodology should not serve as the sole or primary basis for any investment decision. Investors must carefully consider their financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and experience, and should seek independent financial or investment advice as needed. The authors, distributors, and any related parties bear no responsibility for any direct, indirect, consequential, special, or punitive losses or damages arising from investment decisions made with reference to this Methodology.
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